天朝论

  这篇电报是2009年5月30日,从美国驻新加坡大使馆发出的。内容是新加坡前任总理、前任国务资政、以及现任内阁资政李光耀在会见美国常务副国务卿James Steinberg时发表的一些观点。


  储君习近平,少时多难,后为上海太守,才华卓绝,党国器之,太上皇亦宠之。然太上皇垂垂老矣,三载以后,其势必衰(译者注:原话是三年半,为啥是三年半?)。自邓公以降,中国已无可只手遮天之人物,党国所重,唯维稳二字而已。江忌胡甚矣,未有逼宫之举,盖因胡谨慎持重,行事未有疏漏。

  去年五月,余曾会内阁大学士王岐山于中新苏州工业园立园十五年庆。王指点防疫于琼州(SARS),运筹奥运于帝都,贤能通达,堪称国器,既定内阁之首席,次辅李XX莫能与之争。余与王相识十余年,初会于何时何地,所言何事,已不能复忆。去年相见,王谓余曰,上溯邓公,下至胡哥,斯尝阅尽历任天子与余会谈之纪要,以窥余心境之变迁。王敬余,一字记之曰“恒”(consistent)。恒者,发力不争天下先,而余力绵绵不绝也。

  余观天朝亦以恒道治国。《大国崛起》风靡一时,可为明鉴。行霸道者,贪猥无厌,妄自尊大,穷一邦之力逐天下鹿,德国日本之旧事,不可不查。今天朝国力日盛,以财力论,只在美国日本之下,与美日相较,则相去日微。天朝之国本(GDP)年增八九厘,而美日不过二三厘而已。权衡国力,当以国本而非人本(GDP per capita)计,况天朝人力四倍于美利坚(这句很突兀,应该是英文blog的作者自己加的;后面就是老生常谈的各种国际关系,没意思了……)……

Lee has been quoted as saying: ” Xi Jinping ( My comment: Hu Jintao’s expected successor) is a princeling who succeeded despite being rusticated. When the party needed his talents, Xi was brought in as Shanghai Party Secretary. Xi is seen as a Jiang Zemin protege, but in another three and a half years Jiang’s influence will be gone. The focus now is on maintaining the system. There are no more strongmen like Deng Xiaoping. Jiang did not like Hu, but could not stop him, because Hu had the backing of the system and he did not make mistakes. Vice Premier Wang Qishan, whom the MM (Minister Mentor) saw in connection with celebrations in May of the 15th anniversary of Singapore-China Suzhou Industrial Park, is an exceptional talent, very assured and efficient. Wang handled SARS (?) superbly when he was in Hainan. He excelled in coordinating the Beijing Olympics. Li Keqiang may not get the Premiership and the Party is looking for a way to keep Wang on past his 65th birthday until he is 70. MM Lee said he had met first Wang back in the 1990s but had forgotten their meeting. This time when they met, Wang told Lee he had reviewed the records of all Lee’s meetings with Chinese leaders going back to the days of Deng Xiaoping to see how Lee’s thinking had developed. Wang told Lee he respects him as a consistent man. China is following an approach consistent with ideas in the Chinese television series “The Rise of Great Powers.” The mistake of Germany and Japan had been their effort to challenge the existing order. The Chinese are not stupid; they have avoided this mistake. China’s economy has surpassed other countries, with the exceptions of Japan and the United States. Even with those two countries, the gap is closing, with China growing at seven-nine percent annually, versus two-three percent in the United States and Japan. Overall GDP, not GDP per capita, is what matters in terms of power. China has four times the population of the United States. China is active in Latin America, Africa, and in the Gulf. Within hours, everything that is discussed in ASEAN meetings is known in Beijing, given China’s close ties with Laos, Cambodia, and Burma. China will not reach the American level in terms of military capabilities any time soon, but is rapidly developing asymmetrical means to deter U.S. military power. China understands that its growth depends on imports, including energy, raw materials, and food. This is why China is working with South Africa on the China-Africa Development Fund. China also needs open sea lanes. Beijing is worried about its dependence on the Strait of Malacca and is moving to ease the dependence by means like a pipeline through Burma. The best course for the United States on China is to build ties with China’s young people. China’s best and brightest want to study in the United States.”

http://ramanstrategicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/11/china-tells-us-not-in-our-mutual.html

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